Author Chris Martenson (The Crash Course, Prosper!) interviewed me last month for the website he runs with Adam Taggart—Peak Prosperity.

Chris and Adam definitely do not have their heads in the sand when it comes to myopic fiscal policies and roller coaster monetary policies, and the interview covered both of those topics, mostly in relation to Economics for Independent Thinkers.

Here’s a link to the interview, which was also picked up by ZeroHedge.


We’ve been seeing more and more commentaries discussing bad stuff that can happen when the Fed tightens policy and, as a result, the yield curve flattens. (See, for example, this piece from Citi Research and ZeroHedge.) No doubt, the Fed’s rate hikes will lead to mishaps as they usually do—in both markets and the economy. But most forecasters expect the economy to expand through next year, believing that the Fed and the yield curve aren’t yet restrictive enough to trigger a recession.

We won’t make a full-year 2018 forecast here, but we’ll share one of our “dashboard” charts that supports the consensus view for at least the first half of the year. With one methodological change to a chart we published in August, we’ll look at the following indicators, which together have an excellent track record predicting the business cycle:

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